PREDICT · Convergence Trade
Sparse data (32% of expected samples) — statistics may be unreliable
Forward-fill used for gaps in mark-price history. Smaller window or current spread reading more trustworthy than long-range stats.
Profit Calculator
Slippage is not in these figures yet — the order book is still loading. Breakeven is understated and tradeability overstated until it arrives; wait for the refresh before judging the trade.
Three scenarios: the current spread 0.99% compresses to the target (0% = full convergence). Sized at $10,000 per leg.
| If spread converges to↓ target spread | 0% | 0.50% | 1.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross profit | +$98.93 | +$48.93 | -$1.07 |
| Round-trip fees | −$19.00 | −$19.00 | −$19.00 |
| Slippage(loading orderbook…) | — | — | — |
| Funding drag(est. 1h hold) | +$1.64 | +$1.64 | +$1.64 |
| Net potential | +$81.57 | +$31.57 | -$18.43 |
⏱ Hold time (estimated from history)
Exit target: spread compresses to the median 0.93% (full convergence to 0 is rare — holding to zero usually makes no sense).
Based on 35 comparable episodes over 1D. Check the position roughly every ~1h.
Estimate of historical spread behavior — not a guarantee of the future.
Spread Statistics
Window: 24h · 148 samples
Bybit(cex)- Mark Price
- $0.9775
- Exchange Ticker
- PREDICTUSDT
- Taker / Maker
- 0.055% / 0.02%
- Funding APR(8h)
- +5.48%
- OI
- $782.81K
- 24h Vol
- $72.86K
⚠ slippage not modeled (virtual liquidity / RFQ venue)
Trade Long
Aster(dex)- Mark Price
- $0.9872
- Exchange Ticker
- PREDICTUSDT
- Taker / Maker
- 0.04% / 0.01%
- Funding APR(1h)
- +148.74%
- OI
- $2.82M
- 24h Vol
- $290.92K
⚠ slippage not modeled (virtual liquidity / RFQ venue)
Trade Short91 long / 88 short samples · 2 days · auto-refresh every 30s