PREDICT · Convergence Trade
Sparse data (45% of expected samples) — statistics may be unreliable
Forward-fill used for gaps in mark-price history. Smaller window or current spread reading more trustworthy than long-range stats.
Profit Calculator
Slippage is not in these figures yet — the order book is still loading. Breakeven is understated and tradeability overstated until it arrives; wait for the refresh before judging the trade.
Three scenarios: the current spread 0.60% compresses to the target (0% = full convergence). Sized at $10,000 per leg.
| If spread converges to↓ target spread | 0% | 0.50% | 1.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross profit | +$59.96 | +$9.96 | -$40.04 |
| Round-trip fees | −$18.00 | −$18.00 | −$18.00 |
| Slippage(loading orderbook…) | — | — | — |
| Funding drag(est. 1h hold) | +$2.18 | +$2.18 | +$2.18 |
| Net potential | +$44.14 | -$5.86 | -$55.86 |
⏱ Hold time (estimated from history)
Exit target: spread compresses to the median 0.56% (full convergence to 0 is rare — holding to zero usually makes no sense).
Based on 46 comparable episodes over 1D. Check the position roughly every ~1h.
Estimate of historical spread behavior — not a guarantee of the future.
Spread Statistics
Window: 24h · 176 samples
Binance Futures(cex)- Mark Price
- $1.2991
- Exchange Ticker
- PREDICTUSDT
- Taker / Maker
- 0.05% / 0.02%
- Funding APR(4h)
- +10.96%
- OI
- $6.77M
- 24h Vol
- $19.42M
⚠ slippage not modeled (virtual liquidity / RFQ venue)
Trade Long
Aster(dex)- Mark Price
- $1.3069
- Exchange Ticker
- PREDICTUSDT
- Taker / Maker
- 0.04% / 0.01%
- Funding APR(1h)
- +201.83%
- OI
- $3.42M
- 24h Vol
- $1.71M
⚠ slippage not modeled (virtual liquidity / RFQ venue)
Trade Short130 long / 98 short samples · 2 days · auto-refresh every 30s