You check a funding rate on two sites and they disagree — sometimes even on the sign. That is rarely a bug. It usually comes down to one distinction: predicted vs realized funding.
Predicted vs realized
The predicted (estimated) rate is a live forecast of what the next settlement will charge — it moves continuously as the perpetual drifts above or below its index price. The realized rate is what was actually paid at settlement. A tracker showing predicted will legitimately differ from one showing realized, especially right before a settlement boundary.
Why funding swings — and what it means for arbitrage
Funding is driven by positioning. When the crowd piles long, the perpetual trades above index, funding goes positive, and longs pay shorts to pull it back. On thin markets that imbalance flips fast, so the rate is volatile. On deep majors it is steadier.
- A high but volatile spread can evaporate before the next settlement — the headline APR may never be realized.
- A moderate but stable spread that holds across many settlements is often the better trade after execution cost.
- ORBIT’s screener shows a stability indicator on historical timeframes so you can tell steady spreads from one-off spikes.
How to use it
Before sizing a funding trade, switch the screener to a 7-day timeframe and check whether the spread is consistent or just a spike, then confirm realized PnL in the backtester — which sums actual settled funding, not a single predicted snapshot.